The man who predicted the quake - conman or visionary?

An Italian scientist had warned a month ago that a devastating earthquake was about to rock the area around L’Aquila, in central Italy, where over 170 people perished in their sleep on Monday morning. At the time, the authorities rebuffed him for scaremongering. Today, he says he is owed an apology.

A few weeks ago, vans equipped with megaphones drove up and down the streets of L’Aquila urging local residents to evacuate the area. The vehicles had been dispatched by Giampaolo Giuliani, a scientist at Italy’s National Institute of Nuclear Physics, in the Abruzzi region. A flurry of earth tremors in mid-January had convinced Giuliani that a massive earthquake was about to strike the area. At the time, the dire forecast allegedly earned him a threat of criminal charges from the city’s mayor.

Now, Giuliani says his detractors owe him an apology. Yet, Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics remains unimpressed. Following the catastrophe, its statement simply read: “It is impossible to predict an earthquake”.

Also read the account from our Observer in L'Aquila, Paolo Busi.

Jim Berkland is a retired geologist and a regular earthquake forecaster on the Internet. 

‘If he’s come up with a method to predict earthquakes, then he’s good for the Nobel Prize!’

Yann Klinger is a researcher at the Institute of Global Physics in Paris.

In theory, it is not possible to predict an earthquake. This man says he measured a major increase in emanations of radon gas a few weeks ago in the area around L’Aquila. This gas constantly rises towards the earth’s surface, but in greater quantities once faults widen. However, spikes in radon gas are sometimes detected without there being any quake thereafter.

This doesn’t mean his technique based on radon gas should be dismissed as entirely flawed. But as things stand today, nobody can state with certainty that there is a direct link between this gas and the occurrence of quakes.

In any case, if he’s come up with a method to predict earthquakes, then he’s good for the Nobel Prize!

One mustn’t forget that this earthquake remains a relatively minor one. The fact that it took place at the heart of Europe has shocked people, but something like this can happen at any time and lead to many more casualties, even in France.

In this video, posted on YouTube on April 1, Giampaolo Giuliani forecasts an earthquake in L’Aquila (video in Italian).