Did toads predict the earthquake?

According to recent estimates, the earthquake that hit China on Monday could leave 10,000 people dead. Web users are saying that the catastrophe could have been avoided, if only they had listened to the toads.

Two days before the quake thousands of toads suddenly decided to move across a bridge in Taizhou, a town in the Jiangsu province (see photos). Chinese web users are wondering why the local authorities didn't relate the event to the imminence of an earthquake, and why scientists didn't take notice of the bizarre disappearance of a lake in Enshi, in the Hubei province, on April 26 (see photos).

A seismologist tells us that the Chinese have long relied on the behaviour of animals to predict earthquakes. Although there's no scientific study to back up the farmers' claims, the idea that toads sensed the earthquake should not be ruled out.

Contributors

"Animals sense pre-earthquake micro-tremors"

Pascal Bernard is a researcher in a team of seismologists at the Jussieu University in Paris.

Although it's difficult to prove that toads "predicted" the quake, it's certainly not impossible. We know that animals sense pre-earthquake micro-tremors, and react to underground water movements, or even changes in the composition of the air. It's just that these theories haven't been scientifically proven yet.

China has a long tradition of seismology studies based particularly on looking at the behaviour of rats, snakes, toads etc. The idea was very fashionable in the 70s [when scientific researchers were ousted in the cultural revolution]. Farmers very carefully noted down all the different kinds of behaviour of animals in the hope of predicting natural catastrophes. But in my experience it never really worked. In 1975, villagers did manage to predict an earthquake and avoid catastrophe. But it was because they felt the mini-tremors, not because of something they noticed in the animals."

Swamped by toads in Taizhou (Jiangsu province)

10 May 08. Via Chinese website QQ.

A pond disappears in Enshi (Hubei province)

April 26. Via QQ.

Resulting in a good catch for a fisherman.

Comments

I believe the toads did

I believe the toads did predict the earthquake. It is more likely that they did than they didn't. The reason is because all animals have a sense and they know when something bad is going to happen. Just take birds for instance. They always migrate to the south when the winter comes. It's a survival tactic.

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The quake and toads

I am sure there is something in this - I will say that the one time I have felt a quake (this occur very infrequently in the UK) there was no evidence of exceptional animal activity, dogs barking etc.

surely in this day and ae

surely in this day and ae they have ways to detect these things anyway? just doesnt sem right that all those people died without knowing anything at all.

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The cows in San Francisco...

Prior to the GREAT EARTHQUAKE early last century in San Francisco the cows were seen running across town...

My dog barks

When my dog barks at nothing, does this mean I should go on vacation?

No, my dog is very old and he is half blind and fully deaf. Animals do strange things all the time. So if you are planning on reacting to every weird thing a dog, cat, toad, bird or whale does, I hope you got a lot of air miles!

Hund

Animals are a lot smarter than we know about. They can sense things we cannot predict - like the toads! They perhaps have a strong intuision? :-)

My dog does strange things too, but I don't think that it is a convenience that so many toads just appares in the middle of the street without no reason.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I like to think that there are things we cannot understand :-)

Remember the tsunami in

Remember the tsunami in Thailand, all the elephants, birds and forest animals running off 2 hours before the wave. As a result 5000 people died in this country, and 0 animals...and those pets got no air miles!

Good point, but Taizhou is

Good point, but Taizhou is in Jiangsu province, a long way from the epicentre at Wenquan in Sichuan. Same with the pond in Hubei.Maybe the toads sensed something, maybe not - but the point is moot as nobody could have used this information to accurately predict the exact location or time of the impending earthquake.

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